What is PredictViz?
PredictViz shows the most likely path of the remainder of the match in diagram form. Given the current situation, it shows the likely innings totals, declarations, chases and margin of victory.
How does PredictViz work?
PredictViz uses the same mathematical model as WinViz. In Tests It takes the average predicted scores for each innings, and shows how they would fall across the remaining days of the match, when an innings would end, what the lead would be, how much a side would need to chase, and what the margin of victory would be in that case.
In ODIs and T20s PredictViz shows the likeliest course that the remainder of the match will take. It shows the range of scores that each team can expect from the current match position. The high and low values are quartiles, so you can expect 25% of scores to be above the high value and 25% below the low score.
The inner workings of the model are explained on the WinViz page.
Why does Test WinViz sometimes disagree with Test PredictViz?
There are certain situations where the average or median outcome doesn’t fall within the most likely outcome.
There are various ways to understand this.
Let’s say that we have the following situation –
Team A win 40%, Draw 35%, Team B win 25%
Remember, we are not predicting a Team A victory. In fact, Team A are more likely to not win (60%), than win (40%). Therefore, it should not be a huge surprise that the average result is not a Team A win.
In Football and other sports, the better you play, the better your outcome. As you play better you go from loss, to draw to win.
In Test cricket this is often not true. There are many situations where you go from loss, to win to draw. For example, there are situations where batting better will decrease your chances of winning (although it will always reduce your chance of losing).
Let’s say we are playing a game. We have a six-sided die which has the numbers 0, 1, 2, 2, 3, and 4 on its faces. If the number is a 2, then I win, otherwise you win.
The average score gives a win to me, but clearly your chances of winning are much greater than mine. PredictViz shows what would happen if each team made their expected totals from this point on in the match. It is like looking at the result for the average score in the game above.